From Deseret News archives:
Utah economy slowing down
Business index drops to a neutral level of 50.0
The index, compiled by the Creighton University Economic Forecasting Group, puts the state's figure at a neutral 50.0 for November, down from 60.6 in October.
The index uses a range from zero to 100, with a figure greater than 50 indicating an expansionary economy over the next three to six months. The Creighton forecast, based on a survey of supply managers and business leaders, uses the same methodology as a national manufacturing survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management.
"Utah's unemployment rate is growing, and our survey indicates that it will continue to grow in the months ahead," said Ernie Goss, a Creighton economics professor and director of the forecasting group.
The last time Utah's overall index was below 50.0 was in April 2004, when it was 48.5. Its low point in the past year was 53.6 last December, but the state's index rebounded to its highest level in the past year, 86.8, a month later.
Among the components for the Utah overall figure in November were new orders at 50.5, production at 49.4, delivery lead time at 50.8, inventories at 48.3, and employment at 52.1.
The national manufacturing index was 50.8 in November, down from 50.9 in October. The November results, which marked the 10th consecutive monthly expansion, were slightly stronger than the 50.1 expected by analysts polled by Thomson/IFR Markets.
Creighton tracks Utah as part of a three-state Mountain States region, which saw its November business-conditions index slip to 56.6 from October's 63.3 and September's 64.8.
"The Mountain States region will continue to expand, even as the national economy moves closer and closer to recessionary economic conditions," Goss said in a prepared statement. "Industries with linkages to the region's large mining and natural resources industries continue to experience healthy business growth, with oil prices approaching $100 per barrel in November. Even so, our survey points to slower growth in the months ahead."
Colorado's index slid to 61.9 in November from 65.0 in October and 66.7 in September. Wyoming's overall number was 62.5, down from 63.3 in October and 64.0 in September.
The Mountain States' employment index was what Goss described as a "still healthy" 59.1 in November, down a bit from October's 60.6.
"New hiring has been very strong in non-metropolitan areas of the region, due primarily to growth linked to the mining and natural resources sector. Downturns in housing and related credit issues have produced job losses in metropolitan areas of the region," he said.
