What if the rich don't spend?

Will the McSpending stop now that the McMansions aren't worth top dollar anymore?

This holiday season, economists and others are growing increasingly concerned about whether upper-middle-class consumers will quit indulging themselves with little luxuries now that home values have slumped, adjustable rate mortgage payments are shooting up and sport utility vehicles are more expensive to back out of the garage.

Wealthier consumers, by their nature, spend a lot of money. So if they stop spending on things like Coach handbags, Starbucks coffee or trips to Nordstrom — especially when the economy seems on shaky footing already — it's a big deal.

"If those consumers pull back significantly, it adds to the recession risk," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.

Zandi notes that in recent years, a booming housing market and a robust stock market have meant that some higher-middle-income consumers — those with incomes of $75,000 to $150,000 — have been able to trade up and, yes, spend more money.

Yet this season it's getting to be more fashionable to be frugal.

"There are some preliminary signs that the higher-end retailers are starting to feel a bit of a pinch here," said Brian Bethune, U.S. economist for Global Insight in Lexington, Mass.

Looking for canaries in the coal mines, consider:

Since Sept. 19, Coach Inc.'s stock has dropped about 30 percent; Nordstrom Inc. has gotten socked, too — down about 31 percent since Sept. 19.

Nordstrom Inc. reported a 2.4 percent drop in sales for October at stores open at least a year. Analysts saw this as a sign that luxury retailers are more vulnerable than many once believed.

Starbucks Corp. reported its first decline in customer visits ever. And Starbucks CEO Jim Donald said in various interviews that economic headwinds hit stronger than expected.

"The higher-end consumer is not immune," warned David Sowerby, a Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based portfolio manager for Loomis, Sayles & Co. He said some higher-income, middle-class consumers also invested in speculative real estate and lost money when housing values dropped. A 10 percent correction in the stock market has also left its mark on some.

Zandi is concerned that wealthier consumers will really be forced to cut back if oil hits $100 a barrel or higher — and the price at the pump climbs to $4 a gallon early next year.

Some industries, such as financial and brokerage services, keep cutting back and laying off more workers nationwide. Troubles in the housing market also mean that consumers cannot easily tap into the equity in their homes to spend more.

"I think recession risks are very high," Zandi said.