Warming could exacerbate Utah fire danger

Some global warming models predict Utah will become even drier than it already is, according to Brian McInerney, a hydrologist with the local National Weather Service. If that happens, he added, the change would "exacerbate the fire danger" and eventually change the state's vegetation.

McInerney was a member of a panel discussing "Choices: Fire, Climate and Insurance" Thursday night at the Salt Lake City Public Library. Meeting in the Tessman Auditorium, the panel was hosted by the Leonardo Science Center, the library and radio station KCPW. The session was one of the bimonthly public discussions called the "Science in Society" series.

The hydrologist said his job involves studying the winter snowpack, source of most culinary water in Utah. The climate's impact on the snowpack is large, he said, and people are concerned about changes.

"The question of climate change came up. How is that going to affect our water supply?" he asked.

Last summer was the hottest on record in Salt Lake City, McInerney said. This follows a trend that has been going on since about 1978, when the mean temperature began to rise.

It's not that the high temperature has shot up, but the daily minimum is 2 or 3 degrees above what was normal. "The nighttime mins aren't as cold," he said.

Still, for 24 days this past July, high temperatures reached 95 or above. Typically, the month has 10 days that hot. The previous record, 23 days, was set in 1960, he said.

"When you look at 1960 ... we didn't really have the evolution of climate change at that time." McInerney said that year's unusual heat could be chalked up to ordinary fluctuations.

More recently, Salt Lake City's temperature has risen in a steady fashion. "Eleven of the past 12 years have been the hottest that we've seen."

If the trend continues, Utah could have hotter and longer wildfire seasons.

Over the past decade or so, "the atmosphere's actually getting wetter," he said. Moisture content in many places is about 10 percent higher than it was before.

Does that mean fires that start in Utah will be put out more easily because of moist air or more frequent rainfall?

That question is yet to be answered, he said. "We suspect the temperatures are going to warm, additionally." Meanwhile, some models predict that Utah and other places in the Southwest will become drier.