From Deseret News archives:
Utah's business conditions get boost
The Zions Bank Small Business Conditions Index for Utah was 108.6 in October, up from a revised 106.6 in September.
The index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of a Utah small-business owner or manager. It uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base, and a higher number is associated with more favorable business conditions.
Utah's unemployment rate, the most heavily weighted element of the index, was at 2.7 percent in October, up from 2.6 percent the previous month and identical to the same month a year earlier. A higher unemployment rate is considered a positive in the index because it implies increased access to Utah labor.
Utah also is benefiting from an overall strong national economy, according to Jeff Thredgold, president of Salt Lake-based Thredgold Economic Associates, economic consultant to Zions Bank and author of the report.
"Despite the national media's obsession with one negative housing story after another, overall U.S. economic growth remains positive," Thredgold wrote. The national gross domestic product rose at an after-inflation annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter, "the strongest quarterly growth pace in more than a year," he wrote.
Utah's unemployment rate of 2.7 percent compares with 2.9 percent in 2006, 4.3 percent in 2005, 5.1 percent in 2004 and 5.7 percent in 2003. The average rate was 3.5 percent between 1995 and 1999.
The state also added an estimated 53,500 jobs during the past year. "The 4.4 percent rise is one of the strongest annualized Utah gains in more than 10 years, and is the strongest job growth rate in the nation," Thredgold wrote, adding that the state gained 54,000 jobs in the prior year.
The nation added 166,000 net jobs in October, and the national unemployment rate remained at a 14-month high of 4.7 percent.
Thredgold noted that most forecasts for national GDP growth in the current quarter have it at a 1.5 percent to 2.2 percent real annual rate. "The consensus view has the economy also avoiding recession in 2008, with modest growth near a 2.0 percent real annual rate during the first quarter approaching a 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent real growth pace by the end of 2008," he wrote.
"We continue to suggest only a 25 percent chance of a U.S. recession during the next 12 months."
E-mail: bwallace@desnews.com
