Romney and Clinton lead in Iowa poll

A University of Iowa poll released today shows that Mitt Romney continues to be the leading GOP presidential candidate among likely voters in that state's first-in-the-nation party caucuses on Jan. 3.

Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is the favorite, according to the poll, closely followed by Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. Support for the party's vice-presidential nominee in 2004, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, is slipping.

The Hawkeye Poll is a random sample of likely caucus-goers and was conducted Oct. 17-24. The survey questioned 285 Republicans, with a margin of error of 5.8 percent, and 306 Democrats, with a margin of error of 5.5 percent.

The poll found that Romney's lead has continued to grow since March. Romney, who headed the successful 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, had the support of 36.2 percent of likely GOP voters in the latest poll, up from 27.8 percent in August and 16.9 percent in March.

"It's clear Romney is the one to beat in Iowa," said David Redlawsk, Hawkeye Poll director and a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "His support is now nearly triple his nearest competitor. He leads among all demographic groups, including religious conservatives, and is especially strong among the older voters who tend to be most likely to attend a caucus."

But former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is gaining in the poll and is "developing a following among Evangelical Christians, which may allow him to make a strong showing at the caucus," Redlawsk said.

Huckabee came in third among likely Republican voters in the new poll, with 12.8 percent. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the national frontrunner, was second behind Romney, with 13.1 percent.

The newest GOP contender, actor and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, was fourth with 11.4 percent, while Sen. John McCain of Arizona trails with just 6 percent. McCain, whose campaign has had financial problems, had polled as high as 20.9 percent earlier in the year.

Clinton has the support of 28.9 percent of likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, while Obama has 26.6 percent and Edwards has 20 percent. Both Republicans and Democrats in the poll were asked to name the candidate they would vote for if the caucuses were held today.

Iowa is a key state in the presidential race because it is the first to vote for party nominees. Romney, who served as governor of Massachusetts after leaving Utah in 2002, has invested heavily in the state to build name recognition.

Utah's presidential primary is Feb. 5. Romney, a member of the LDS Church like the majority of Utahns, is the favorite among Utah Republicans, while most of the state's Democrats back Obama.

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