Utah economy flagging?

Utah's economy — still the best performing of any state in the nation — is in danger of losing steam, according to new predictions from the state Department of Workforce Services.

For the second month in a row, the number of nonfarm wage and salaried jobs in the state dropped slightly in September to 4.4 percent growth over the same time last year.

August growth was tracked at 4.5 percent over August 2006, while July's numbers showed 4.7 percent growth, according to the department.

The state's unemployment rate also rose slightly, from 2.6 percent in August to 2.7 in September. The change in rate means that about 2,000 more people were unemployed in September than the month before, for a total of approximately 37,000 unemployed Utahns.

"The economic environment is currently maintaining its strength, but I also believe it is on the cusp of losing some energy," Mark Knold, the department's chief economist, said in a Tuesday statement accompanying the release of the numbers.

"Employment growth remains at over 4 percent, and the unemployment rate is exceedingly low," he said. "But with Utah's strong growth about to enter its fourth year of robust activity, the odds of it continuing at this pace diminish."

Knold predicts employment growth to plateau at 4 percent in 2007 and drop into the 3-percent range by early 2008, partly because of the impact of the ongoing housing slowdown. Construction on new residential housing is slowing and home prices are on a downward trend, all leading to a "softening influence" on the economy, he said.

A strong state economy has created approximately 53,500 new jobs in Utah over the past year, or 4,500 new jobs every month, according to Workforce Services. That brings the state's total wage and salary employment to nearly 1.3 million jobs.

Still, Utah's job picture remains "far and away" the best in the nation, the department noted in the monthly snapshot. The U.S. economy has added 1.6 new million new jobs since September 2006, a growth rate of just 1.2 percent. Additionally, the national unemployment rate rose to 4.7 percent in September.

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E-mail: awelling@desnews.com