Hillary lengthens Demo lead; Giuliani tops GOP polls

Hillary Rodham Clinton has strengthened her position as the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. But her strong showing nationally belies a much closer race in Iowa, where she is in a tight three-way contest with Barack Obama and John Edwards.

An AP-Ipsos poll conducted between Oct. 1-3 shows Clinton ahead of Obama, her closest rival, by more than 20 points — 46 percent to 25 percent.

The rest of the field is in single digits: Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, pulled in 9 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden each had 2 percent and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd 1 percent.

Only Clinton and Obama have the deep financial resources to compete in the early contests and in the crush of big states holding primaries Feb. 5.

The rest of the candidates are redoubling their efforts in Iowa, hoping a good showing there will give them a "bounce" into the later states. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 14; they are all but certain to move up.

The New York senator draws support from women, blacks and voters without a college degree. Clinton has neutralized what was expected to be a major liability — her vote in favor of the Iraq war. She no longer is heckled on the campaign trail for that vote and has managed to persuade many anti-war Democrats that she would move quickly to end the conflict as president.

Clinton has worked hard to convince voters that she is not the brittle, calculating figure she long has been portrayed. While she does not have the intuitive campaign skills of her husband, voters say she has impressed them with her warmth, ready smile and willingness to spend hours taking questions, chatting and shaking hands. A bona fide celebrity, Clinton never tires of posing for cell-phone photos with starry-eyed fans.

She still has obstacles to surmount before winning her party's nomination. She must convince skeptical Democrats eager to reclaim the White House that she can win a general election. She must walk a fine line between embracing her husband's legacy and projecting independence and an ability to bring change to Washington.

Most important, she must win or come in a close second in Iowa; otherwise, her sense of inevitability will vanish.

Despite Obama's charisma, crowd appeal and early opposition to the Iraq war, the Illinois senator's support has remained essentially flat for months and has begun to drop in some key areas.