Change on horizon in senior care

SANDY — The next generation of Utah seniors is going to work longer, live a lot longer and resort to nursing home care a lot less than previous generations.

That's how a demographics expert, who was here Tuesday for the 45th annual convention of care center owners and operators, believes the future will unfold.

Four Ps — property, pension, prudence and parents — will define the profile of the baby boomer senior, said Nancy Rehkamp, a widely cited health care and senior living policy analyst from Minneapolis.

She said about 80 percent of their assets are in their homes, and 88 percent will continue working several years beyond age 65 — compared to 20 percent of today's seniors, Rehkamp said. Less than half will have a defined pension plan, and they're already out of time to save for one. And, unlike their parents, they will enter skilled nursing care centers as a last resort and for a shorter time.

Care centers will still be required, she said, and in the short-term in Utah the need will increase dramatically during the next five years. But a shift to a 50-50 split between care center services and in-home services ultimately will be a reality.

"What's going on in a number of states, including Utah, is what's referred to as 'starving out' the care centers," Rehkamp said.

State Division of Aging administrators aren't out to abolish care centers. But they are proposing to legislators that any new appropriations for long-term care of the elderly be directed toward in-home or assisted living service providers and not to care centers.

"The fact is, like a lot of traditional methods in many industries, care centers will have to evolve into a more individual consumer approach," Rehkamp said, noting that such efforts are sounding an alarm for care centers everywhere. "In Minnesota, for example, every 1 percent drop in the number of care center clients amounts to a $30 million reduction in state funding."

Everyone, no matter what age, wants to live at home for as long as possible, Rehkamp said, but the obvious increase in home health care on the horizon should not be seen as a panacea.

The average Alzheimer's patient requires 79 hours per week of one-on-one attention, whether at home or in a care center, she said. A Parkinson's sufferer requires 55 hours per week, and brain-injury patients — who are increasing significantly with the improvement of technology — require 35 hours per week.