Political races a sure bet? Check Web

Rietz said when compared to nearly 1,000 polls, the market was closer to the election outcome 74 percent of the time. Market players have a vested interest in predicting how the electorate will vote, he said, while pollsters capture the public's views at a given moment.

"People have money at stake, so they'll get their opinions right," Rietz said.

Utah pollster Dan Jones said there's some truth to that view. "I think they have to reach to say that," Jones said. "But polls are asking people about their behavior, and opinion doesn't always lead to behavior."

Currently, the Iowa university's market has New York Sen. Hillary Clinton heavily favored to win the Democratic presidential nomination, trailed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

On the GOP side, the market's money is on former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. But he has a smaller lead than Clinton over his closest Republican rivals, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

And come November 2008, the odds are that Democrats will win the election.

Participants in the Iowa market open an account with a minimum of $5 and a maximum of $500, then buy "contracts" for $1 apiece that will pay off $1. But they also can buy and sell contracts among themselves and risk wins or losses in the market — just like Intrade.

That raises questions about whether Utahns can legally participate in such markets. The state not only prohibits gambling in general, there is also a law specifically banning wagering on the outcome of political elections.

Thom Roberts, an assistant Utah attorney general, stopped short of issuing an opinion on the legality of Utahns betting on who'll win the presidential race through the Web sites, but suggested there could be problems.

"It raises the issue that if people in Utah were to do it, they might be gambling here in Utah," Roberts said, dismissing claims that the political futures markets are no different than other commodities or stock trading.

But that's how Rietz sees it. "Gambling is set up so the house always wins," he said. "Market trading involves risk, just like gambling involves risk, but your profits depend on your information and skill."

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