From Deseret News archives:
Political races a sure bet? Check Web
Believe it or not, there are political futures markets where wagers are being taken on presidential candidates, just as if they were pork bellies, soybeans, ethanol, precious metals or foreign currencies.
Through a number of Web sites, including one operated by the University of Iowa's business college, traders can place bets on, for example, who'll win the Republican or Democratic nomination next year.
Anyone can follow the several political future markets online, often through detailed graphs that show the ups and downs of each major candidate's value as determined by trading over time.
"It's kind of a fun thing to play with, and of course, it's the people who are political junkies who typically do," said Kirk Jowers, director of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics.
While Jowers said he never actually plays the markets, he does keep an eye on them, sometimes sharing a candidate's ups and downs in trading as part of his classroom discussion on presidential politics.
Some Web sites, like www.newsfutures.com, use only "play money" so traders can't actually win or lose cash. But the University of Iowa and Intrade, a for-profit Web site based in Ireland, do require a financial investment to participate.
Presidential politics is just one category of trading at Intrade, which takes bets on just about anything, including the chances of Osama bin Laden being "captured or neutralized" or if CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric will be gone by the end of the year.
University of Iowa finance professor Tom Rietz said in a recent telephone interview that the Iowa university's market was created for educational purposes not to make money like the sometimes controversial Intrade.
"We're not profiting from this enterprise," Rietz said. "There's no bookies or anything like that."
He said what's been learned by studying the Iowa university's political futures market since its creation in 1988 is that the market has been more accurate than polling in predicting who would win the White House.
Recent comments
The problem with Mitt is that he can't be trusted.
I would
not...
James | Sept. 24, 2007 at 9:40 p.m.
there is only one person that i would vote for besides Mitt, and that...
l creager | Sept. 24, 2007 at 9:00 p.m.
How'd this turn into a Mitten love fest. Oh yeah, the Utah thing. I...
Sam Hofer | Sept. 24, 2007 at 6:39 p.m.
- Who is Oprah's heir apparent? 11:39 a.m.
- Florida No. 1, TCU 4 in AP Top 25 11:34 a.m.
- Fed under fire, public anger mounts 11:28 a.m.
- No quagga mussels at Bear Lake 11:27 a.m.
- Former health chief: Ignore guideline 11:11 a.m.
- Sen. moderates frustrate other Dems 10:57 a.m.
- Yellowstone grizzly deaths down 10:52 a.m.
- Atheist groups flourish on campuses 10:37 a.m.
- Griffin edges Ortiz in split decision 10:26 a.m.
- China mine disaster recounted 10:02 a.m.
- Glenn Beck to enter politics?
- BYU records with win
- Police link alcohol to murder
- Jazz outlast Pistons in overtime
- Utah Utes whip SDSU
- Cougars turn focus to dreaded rivals
- Former BYU professor remembered
- Y. coach Hill up for Portland State job
- Cougars put the fun back in football
- Kirilenko heating up for the Jazz
- Buttars wants to limit gay rights laws
194 - Palin plans tour stop in Utah
173 - Glenn Beck to enter politics?
164 - Palin's book shows she's unqualified
122 - BYU records with win
114 - Officer cleared in Cardall Taser case
103 - BYU cuts Women's Research Inst.
100 - Jazz finally win in San Antonio
98 - Utes knock off rival Aggies
93 - Huntsman pleased with Obama
87
A little after midnight Wednesday morning, about 21 hours ago as I write...
There's a lot of reason to leave your plastic home as you shop:
I have yet to notice a difference when government drastically cuts taxes...
"Don't get me wrong you made a great point, but it would be more impactful if...
I can't help but laugh at the liberals commenting here...they're all having a...
Utah doesn't lead BYU in ALL those categories! check the facts again genius....
It's true, they are not people. However, society is judged on how they treat...
While Harvey had a nice game how does the DN say he is the MVP? Stephan was...
AP Poll TCU 4 BYU 18 Utah 22 It's going to be a great game on...
Congratulations Max. You have been a terrific quarterback for BYU, despite...
concerned.
Late in the 4th quarter BYU will score yet another TD against an overrated...


