Romney is likely a shoo-in in Iowa

AMES, Iowa — There's little doubt that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney will win Saturday's non-binding straw poll here of Iowa Republicans, which political observers say is the first test of the 2008 race for the White House.

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Romney's chief competition for his party's nomination — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain — announced earlier this summer that they were skipping the daylong event that serves as a fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party. The event is being held at Iowa State University's basketball arena and is expected to raise $1 million for the party, to help cover the cost of January's presidential caucus.

The straw poll doesn't count for much other than as a show of a campaign's organizational abilities in Iowa, where the votes that do matter will be cast in January. The Iowa caucus kicks off the nation's presidential primaries.

"It is a beauty contest, but it's also an opportunity to demonstrate how efficient and deep your organization is," said Kelly Patterson, director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.

While both Giuliani and McCain have said they're still committed to winning the caucuses, they decided not to invest time and money in the straw poll. Romney has said he scaled back his efforts, but he's spending the rest of the week hitting towns across Iowa to turn out supporters on Saturday.

"By winning the straw poll, we can flex our muscles and show we have the resources on the ground," Carl Forti, Romney's deputy campaign manager and political director, told the Deseret Morning News. "It shows Romney can win Iowa."

Romney, who led the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City before being elected governor of Massachusetts, has campaigned long and hard in Iowa in the hopes his front-runner status there will translate to other states, where he often lags behind Giuliani, McCain and even Fred Thompson, an actor and former Tennessee senator who has not yet formally entered the race.