From Deseret News archives:

Good times keep rolling

Published: Saturday, July 21, 2007 12:15 a.m. MDT
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The Dow may retreat some from its benchmark of 14,000, the housing market may be sluggish everywhere but in Utah, the price of gasoline may be rising faster than the space shuttle and the chairman of the Federal Reserve may still be worried about inflation, but no one can doubt the resiliency of the U.S. economy.

Six years after the attacks of 9/11, that economy has continued to surge despite what many thought would be debilitating setbacks and despite downturns in other industrialized nations. "Old Europe" may have unemployment worries. In the United States, the unemployment rate is a healthy 4.5 percent. In Utah, it's 2.6 percent.

Happy days are here ... still.

Every December lately, it seems some analysts can't resist predicting things will get worse in the coming year. More often than not, they end up embarrassed. So far, the Dow Jones industrial average is up 12.3 percent for the year. But the Dow measures only 30 companies. The Standard & Poor's index is widely seen as more indicative of the economy's performance, and it is up a healthy 9.5 percent.

To be sure, this isn't the 1990s, when tech stocks led surges that turned some people into overnight billionaires. But that era was an anomaly, built to some extent on illusions and some hidden corruption. The amazing thing is that average Americans continue to invest in the market, mainly through their company retirement funds, and they continue to do well.

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Amid all this good news, it may be unpopular to sound warnings. While it's true that even the downturns in recent years have been minor blips leading to greater upturns, people shouldn't act as if good economic times are their birthright.

Individuals need to continue age-old, tried-and-true practices. "Thrift" is not an old-fashioned word. Neither is "savings." Americans today are notorious for their low rate of savings, just as they are known for flashing credit cards as if they were light sabers helping them win the battle for the newest and shiniest consumer prize. Newsweek reports credit card debt has tripled in the United States over the past two decades to a combined $800 billion in 2005.

That money has to be paid back by someone, which may not be a problem as long as the good times roll. But as more and more mortgage holders nationwide are learning, sometimes foreclosure is the only option when budgets are overextended.

On the day the Dow closed above 14,000 for the first time, oil prices hovered around $76 per barrel.

Yes, the U.S. economy remains the envy of the world. But remaining there will require discipline both by government and by the millions of individuals who make the economy go.

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