Is U.S. nearing 'pivot point' in Iraq?

WASHINGTON — A progress report on Iraq will conclude that the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad has not met any of its targets for political, economic and other reform, speeding up the Bush administration's reckoning on what to do next, a U.S. official said Monday.

One likely result of the report will be a vastly accelerated debate among President Bush's top aides on withdrawing troops and scaling back the U.S. presence in Iraq.

The "pivot point" for addressing the matter will no longer be Sept. 15, as initially envisioned, when a full report on Bush's so-called "surge" plan is due, but instead will come this week when the interim mid-July assessment is released, the official said.

"The facts are not in question," the official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because the draft is still under discussion. "The real question is how the White House proceeds with a post-surge strategy in light of the report."

In Baghdad, Iraqi leaders warned Monday the country could collapse if American troops leave too quickly. More threats to Iraqi stability could be looming to the north with Turkish forces gathering in a possible prelude to a cross-border attack against Kurdish rebels.

Iraq's foreign minister said Turkey has massed 140,000 soldiers near Iraq — a figure immediately disputed by the Bush administration, which said satellite photos indicated no such buildup. Nevertheless, Turkey has been deploying troops on the border for several months, and the country's foreign minister said last week that the government and military had agreed on detailed plans for a cross-border operation.

"A hasty withdrawal ... would lead to a crisis that would obliterate all the positive aspects of the U.S. troop deployment," said Salim Abdullah, spokesman for the largest Sunni Arab bloc in parliament.

Sunni legislator Adnan al-Dulaimi said a quick U.S. departure would "destroy Iraq" and that the American presence was necessary to "keep a balance between Iraqi sects" after the wave of Shiite-Sunni reprisal killings that plunged the country to the brink of all-out civil war last year.

"These (U.S.) forces have to stay until (the establishment of) an army and security forces ... capable of achieving peace in all parts of Iraq," al-Dulaimi said.

The progress report on Iraq, required by law, is expected to be delivered to Capitol Hill by Thursday or Friday as the Senate takes up a $649 billion defense policy bill and votes on a Democratic amendment ordering troop withdrawals to begin in 120 days.