Races give ulcers to pollsters

Merrill Cook thought he had worries yesterday. Lily Eskelsen thought it was a long day. Bob Bennett and Scott Leckman thought they just might not make it. Hah! They had nothing on Dan Jones.

They each had to worry about one race.Dan Jones had to worry about all of them.

For a pollster, of which Dan Jones is perhaps Utah's finest, Election Day is the fourth quarter of the Rose Bowl, the 18th fairway at Augusta, Final Jeopardy, and Tax Day all rolled into one. That rush shipment of Maalox? To Mr. Jones' office, and step on it.

Sure, the numbers are impartial and subjective. Polling is nothing more than a snapshot of what people tell you. A scientific, statistical probability, nothing more, nothing less.

But behind every poll is the person who took it.

Being human, that person prefers being right.

A long time ago, not long after he started in the business, Dan Jones was in the company of George Gallup Jr. George's father started what remains the most venerable of them all - the Gallup Poll. Since its beginnings early in the century, the Gallup Poll has successfully projected every presidential winner.

Except one.

Dewey vs. Truman. 1948.

Thomas Dewey had such a commanding lead in the public opinion polls by September that the Gallups went fishing. Then, on election day, Dewey grabbed such a commanding early lead in the voting booths that the Chicago Tribune felt compelled to start the presses, producing its infamous "Dewey Beats Truman" headline.

Two factors had not been taken into consideration. One, labor unions don't tend to get really involved in campaigns until October. Two, Republicans tend to vote early in the day, Democrats late.

And on the far turn, here comes Truman!

George Gallup Jr. told Dan Jones his father never did get over the embarrassment.

So you try to be careful. You try to learn. You try to not tip your hand.

Yesterday, election day, Dan Jones spoke to the Salt Lake Rotary Club with this condition: No predictions.

He delivered a fine speech, full of patriotism and passion and pleas for responsible voting.

But he did not predict, and he did not touch his lunch.

He was a "nervous nelly" and he admitted it.

So many races, so much to worry about. Did he sample the right polling districts? Did he ask the right questions? Did people lie to him?

"Five times out of a hundred you draw a bad sample," he said. He did not look especially chipper.

Since he started polling Utah's political races in 1959, Dan Jones has been right approximately 99 percent of the time. If a football coach had his record, the alumni would have him translated. If a Las Vegas gambler had half his record, he'd own Nevada.

But what does Dan remember? He remembers 1986, Jim Hansen vs. Gunn McKay, 2nd District congressional seat. Dan went on TV at 8 p.m., the moment the polls closed, and, based on his exit polls, projected McKay the winner.

Hansen won.

Twelve years after Hansen-McKay; 50 years after Dewey-Truman, Dan Jones laid it all on the line again yesterday.

That was him, staring at the TV cameras at 8 p.m. sharp, for the 36th straight year, doing his job, crunching the numbers, projecting the victors.

That was him, the guy in the red-white-and-blue liberty tie, dark blue suit, confident manner, and behind his back, those were his fingers - the ones that were crossed.