Last year's graduating class was the first affected by the basic skills test, but the number of students not passing all three sections was never nailed down. The best guess was at least 3,700 had not passed, because that's how many the state said were still failing the math test.

This year, the number of students not passing math totaled nearly 8,200.

But Utah Office of Education spokesman Mark Peterson says it's hard to say whether the number really moved at all. This is the first year the state has had a student ID that tracks them wherever they move, capturing more accurate data.

"I think you're seeing with this release of data something that's much more accurate than what you've seen in the past," associate state superintendent Judy Park said. "What does it mean about our seniors and their achievement and their abilities? I think we need to do some real work and study and get a handle on what it means."

Could it mean students don't take the test seriously? Or they lack the skills?

Stephenson thinks the fail rate would drop if students either had to pass the basic skills test or get a certificate of completion, because "students would take their school experience more seriously from the outset." He didn't know if that also could increase dropout rates, as some have suggested.

"I think students care very much" now, Davis District director of research and assessment Chris Wahlquist said. "We've seen pass rates increasing on first attempts, so I'd say they're more attuned to the need to participate in it to make sure that they pass."

In the Jordan School District, the state's largest, 68.4 percent of the Class of 2009 passed the exam on their first try, compared to 67.7 percent of the class of 2007, said Clyde Mason, director of accountability and program services.

All said, 90.3 percent of Jordan District's graduating seniors passed all three sections, Mason said. The majority of those not passing will qualify for diplomas that say they did not pass the basic skills test, rather than certificates of completion, he said.

But what exactly will that mean to them?

A certificate of completion could affect a student's future, as they wouldn't be able to say they have a high school diploma on college or job applications.

As for the stamped diplomas, it's anyone's guess.

The Utah System of Higher Education has no overall admittance policy tied to the basic skills test.

Business executives in the Salt Lake Valley have complained that students enter the work force without basic writing and math skills. But it's uncertain whether any are asking for student transcripts to prove they passed the basic skills test.

The test is still pretty new, said Michael De Groote, director of communication and marketing for the Salt Lake Chamber, which recently formed an education committee to discuss work force development needs.