NBA franchises await ping-pong ball fate

The NBA will conduct its draft lottery in Secaucus, N.J., today, when the fate of several franchises will hinge on the random order in which pingpong balls are vacuumed from a machine like those used in state lotteries.

That means, once again, dumb luck will have as much to do with shaping NBA rosters as the skill of general managers.

"It's frustrating that somehow in America there are these situations that are almost pure luck," said Indiana Pacers CEO Donnie Walsh, whose team will be participating in the lottery for the first time since 1997. "Somebody's got to get the right ball, and somehow it's smart if you do it."

San Antonio has built three championship teams with lottery success. Its envelope was pulled for the first pick in 1987 although it had the fourth-worst record, which allowed it to draft David Robinson. Ten years later Robinson was lost for most of the season with an injury and San Antonio finished with the third-worst record. It wound up with the top pick again and took Tim Duncan.

Robinson and Duncan were the centerpieces of the Spurs' title team in 1999, while Duncan led them to championships in 2003 and '05.

A Robinson or Duncan or Shaquille O'Neal isn't always available, however. Some years, when no superstar was available, teams have settled for the likes of Pervis Ellison, Derrick Coleman, Joe Smith or Michael Olowokandi with the No. 1 pick.

"It's not just getting the No. 1 pick; it's getting it in the year there's a Duncan sitting there," Walsh said.

This year's top two are college freshmen: Ohio State's Greg Oden and Kevin Durant of Texas.

Dumb luck has always played a major role in producing champions, regardless of the method of determining draft order. At one time, the NBA flipped coins. It also plucked envelopes out of a Plexiglas drum. Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Walton, Magic Johnson, James Worthy and Hakeem Olajuwon were obtained through coin flips and helped their future teams win championships.

The franchises on the losing end of those fateful heads-tails calls were left, respectively, with Neal Walk, Marvin Barnes, David Greenwood, Terry Cummings and Sam Bowie.