Utah may get voucher bill, like it or not

House Speaker Greg Curtis calls it the plague, or benefit, of "unintended consequences."

And supporters of taxpayer-funded school vouchers for parents who send their child to a private school are a great beneficiary of "unintended consequences."

Curtis, R-Sandy, laid out the hard political facts concerning the voucher issue this past week to his House Republican caucus.

And the bottom line is this: Not only will legislative Republicans do nothing now to try to resolve the voucher issue before citizens vote on one of the voucher bills this coming November, even if voters statewide call for repeal of vouchers at the ballot box, the Legislature may end up not acting on their vote — and a form of vouchers would stay in place.

That's because while some House and Senate districts may heavily vote to repeal vouchers, individual legislators will study how their own constituents voted on the issue. And if, by a narrow margin, an individual legislator's constituents want to keep vouchers — even if overall vouchers fail at the ballot box — don't be looking for such legislators to heed the statewide vote.

Rather, those legislators would act to keep vouchers, because their own constituents voted for them, Curtis explained.

And what can a few votes mean?

Curtis won re-election last November by 20 votes in a Sandy city district that is becoming more moderate.

Yes, admits Curtis, various public opinion polls (including surveys conducted for the Deseret Morning News and KSL-TV by Dan Jones & Associates) may show that most Utahns are opposed to vouchers.

But polls only indicate, in broad terms, people's feelings at a certain time.

"I did a poll in my district just before my election," Curtis told caucus members Wednesday. "And I was down 7 percentage points with seven days to go." He got to work, walking door-to-door and redoubled his get-out-the-vote effort.

And he narrowly won. So, campaigning can make a difference at the ballot box. And there may be millions of dollars spent by both pro- and anti-voucher advocates before the November election. Polling now on the issue may have no indication as to which side will win, Curtis points out.

Still, a lover of numbers, Curtis said he worked out the following scenario: Assume that in 38 of the 75 House districts vouchers win at the ballot box, 51 percent to 49 percent. Then assume that in the other 37 House districts vouchers lose 60 percent to 40 percent.

Statewide, vouchers would lose 58 percent to 42 percent. But what are legislators supposed to do? Curtis asks.