Worse droughts ahead?

State water experts have written a "Pre-Disaster Mitigation Plan" addressing drought and other natural hazards. But "Drought in Utah" calls for "more drought specific planning and action."

Suggested mitigations include transfer of water by a water banking system from willing sellers to willing buyers during drought; "conjunctive management" of groundwater and surface water; interconnecting water systems; new water developments; reusing treated waste water; managing water demand; metering use and detecting leaks; weather modification; and a drought early-warning system.

Randy Julander, a premier water supply expert and a member of the panel that reviewed the report, said the study was "extremely well-researched and has some really big lessons" for Utah.

The snow survey supervisor for the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service in Salt Lake City, he said many people have relied on the historical record of observed snowpacks, precipitation, temperature, etc. They show years of plentiful water and years of drought, he added.

But by extending the record back to 2,000 years ago, he said, "I think the take-home message is that the period that we have been living in this past 100, 150 years or so has been one of the most stable that this region has experienced in the last many, many centuries."

Greater climatic variability can be expected in the future, he said, "regardless of where that variability comes from."

Based on the long-term hydrologic record, "we would think that these (severe drought) conditions sometime in the future will replay themselves."

People need to be more conservation-minded, according to Julander. With Utah's population booming and possible droughts looming in the future, residents need to be forward-thinking and conserve continuously, not only when drought hits.

The drought that Utah suffered from 1999 through 2004 may not be nearly as bad as dry spells to come, Julander said.

"That's a sobering thought."

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E-mail: bau@desnews.com