The lead-up to the primary election is a beauty contest. The results of prior nonincumbent mayoral contests (i.e., 1991, 2003) suggest a defining and distinctive characteristic will push the victor above the pack. Just appealing to Rocky's supporters is not enough because everyone is doing that. Most of the candidates — spooked by Keith Christensen's massive lead in contributions — are focused on fund raising. Money is important in this race; it signals seriousness and support. Yet the political history of Salt Lake City dictates the race cannot be purchased with television advertisements and slick mailers. The winner will be the contestant who undertakes risks and appeals to the unique demographics and dynamics of the capital city.

Webb: I actually find the mayoral race quite fascinating. While people would pay to watch a Rocky-Pig fistfight, there is still something to be said for decorum in politics. Take that, you motley cur!

A Republican can absolutely win in Salt Lake City. It has been demonstrated many times that a candidate of one party can win in a jurisdiction heavily weighted toward the other party. We need look no further than the City Council itself.

Congressman Jim Matheson is a Democrat who wins in a Republican district and rivals Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. in popularity and approval ratings. Earlier, Democratic Congressman Bill Orton won for years in the conservative 3rd District.

Look at the evidence nationally. Republican Mitt Romney won in ultraliberal Massachusetts, Republican Rudy Giuliani in New York City, Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, and so forth.

The nonpartisan Salt Lake mayoral race is less ideological than a congressional race. We tend to worry more about the party of someone we send to Congress than someone who is going to be mayor or governor. The mayor's job is to haul the trash and fill the potholes, not engage in partisan gamesmanship.

All things being equal, a Democrat obviously has an advantage in the city. And, clearly, an archconservative Republican isn't going to win. But a moderate, nonideological Republican who runs a great campaign, who gets natural supporters to the polls, who raises sufficient money, and who is respected and liked by voters across the political spectrum has a reasonable chance.

A March 24-29 independent poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates of 506 registered city voters showed 34 percent are Democrat, 27 percent Republican and 27 percent independent (many of whom lean Democratic). Those aren't insurmountable numbers for a moderate, attractive, capable Republican.

Some 48 percent of respondents say party makes no difference, with 36 percent preferring a Democrat and 12 percent preferring a Republican.

A Republican will have to mount a superior campaign, appealing to independents, to win. The downtown business community will have to get involved. Like-minded voters will have to turn out in big numbers.

But all that is doable. Ultimately, it will come down to the quality and capability of the candidates and how well they run their campaigns.

Republicans Dave Buhler and Keith Christensen are fully capable of winning. Both have spent years in city government. They know the city, the issues and the people. They lead all candidates in fund raising, and Buhler is second to Democrat Jenny Wilson in the polls.

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Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. A former candidate for Salt Lake mayor, he served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. Pignanelli's spouse, D'Arcy Dixon Pignanelli, is a Utah state tax commissioner. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.