Can a Republican get elected mayor?

Pignanelli: Yawn. The election for Salt Lake City mayor is boring. By this time in the last election, Rocky had labeled my clients, friends and me as "public enemies" of the city. I was characterizing the mayor as an "incompetent abusive tyrant." Indeed, this paper reported on the Capitol Hill garage encounter where Rocky and I almost came to blows.

Rocky is again the issue in 2007. However, he is the proverbial "elephant in the living room" that everyone knows exists but will not discuss. The mayor enjoys a 60 percent approval rating, and his supporters vote. Consequently, all the candidates are exercising extraordinary caution in how they review the incumbent. No one wants to offend the mayor and his allies. (The most outspoken critic was Megan Holbrook, and she is out of the race.) All the contestants are hoping to attract and capture his constituency.

The other compelling controversy in the mayor's race is whether a Republican can win. GOP enthusiasts point to the recent Dan Jones poll that one-third of Salt Lake City voters are "independent." In reality, these individuals are liberals too proud to identify themselves with any political party. The presence of the so-called independents is evident in Rocky's approval ratings and the consistent lopsided general election results in favor of Democrats. The most logical detractors of Rocky's legacy are the candidates with GOP credentials. Yet they are all circumspect about his record, and one Republican has been endorsed by the mayor. Their actions reveal a knowledge they cannot win without appealing to the huge majority of Democrats and leftists. This will be no easy task as most non-Republicans view the mayor's office as the last bastion in Utah to articulate public opposition to the Legislature, the Republican majority, the LDS Church, President Bush, "the Man" and anything else that smacks of establishment.

The lead-up to the primary election is a beauty contest. The results of prior nonincumbent mayoral contests (i.e., 1991, 2003) suggest a defining and distinctive characteristic will push the victor above the pack. Just appealing to Rocky's supporters is not enough because everyone is doing that. Most of the candidates — spooked by Keith Christensen's massive lead in contributions — are focused on fund raising. Money is important in this race; it signals seriousness and support. Yet the political history of Salt Lake City dictates the race cannot be purchased with television advertisements and slick mailers. The winner will be the contestant who undertakes risks and appeals to the unique demographics and dynamics of the capital city.