The Rowlands are not alone in their uncertainty.

"Significant numbers are really undecided," said David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist. Short of someone else catching fire or entering the race, he said, "in a year where Republican caucus-goers are focused on electability, they may ultimately hold their nose and pick one of the three."

It is Giuliani, McCain and Romney among the nearly dozen Republican presidential hopefuls who appear best positioned to capture the nomination.

Projecting invincibility, McCain spent more than a year meshing loyalists from his failed 2000 bid with some of President Bush's top political operatives to build what he hoped would be an unrivaled organization. Despite its depth, McCain gradually has faltered.

Last week, he announced raising a disappointing $12.5 million in the year's first three months. During a visit to Baghdad, he made upbeat comments about security only to have Iraqis mock his characterization. Before the trip, McCain drew criticism for saying some parts of the capital were safe enough to walk in freely and that the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, drove around in an unarmored humvee. He told CBS' "60 Minutes," in an interview to be broadcast Sunday, that he misspoke when he made that remark.

To get back on track, McCain ordered an overhaul of his fund-raising operation and better controls on spending. He scheduled policy speeches, including the first this Wednesday in which he will defend his support for Bush's policy in Iraq. Other speeches and an official announcement tour are set for this month as he seeks to regain momentum.

Once he made clear he was serious about running, Giuliani jumped to a double-digit edge in national polls. His built-from-scratch political operation is not yet on par with the others. Still, Giuliani ended the January-through-March fund-raising period with a respectable $15 million raised.

He continues to lead in national surveys but his advantage has softened as he has come under increased scrutiny. He has faced questions about his business dealings and about his ties to Bernard Kerik, the former New York City police commissioner against whom prosecutors reportedly are pursuing multiple charges.

Giuliani also has had to answer for his abortion-rights stance and clarify statements suggesting his wife would play a significant role if he were president.

Romney set out to prove he was a threat by ensuring he had a stellar fund-raising start. He succeeded, collecting a surprising $21 million in the year's first three months.

Yet he remains significantly low in national polls. He continues to be dogged by his reversals on abortion and gay rights, and his equivocations on other issues. He resumed television advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire to define himself. His campaign is eager to start debates, where aides believe he will shine.

Given the shifts in the field, Republican consultant Alex Vogel said, "You have to wonder whether gravity takes hold again and conventional wisdom will apply or whether this really does indicate a new paradigm in the Republican primary."