Utah influenza report paints a dire picture

The final report on Utah's readiness for a killer pandemic flu is 75 pages of measured urgency, laced with words like "inevitable," "triage" and "emergency powers."

The report, the result of six months of meetings, was presented Tuesday to Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. by the Governor's Task Force for Pandemic Influenza Preparedness. The task force was co-chaired by Utah Department of Health Executive Director David Sundwall, who noted that no one knows when the pandemic will strike, but "we're not waiting for the 'what ifs."'

The task force offered seven areas of recommendations, with a timeline for the most crucial proposals. By July of this year, for example, Huntsman should establish a permanent Pandemic Advisory Committee that will determine whether current state and local emergency powers are adequate.

That list of emergency powers underscores how devastating a pandemic flu could be. The governor, under expanded powers, would be able to set "altered medical care standards" in cases where the health care system is too overwhelmed to adhere to usual standards. The governor would also be able to enforce cancellation of mass events, limit travel into and out of Utah, and require facilities be made available such as emergency hospitals, quarantine facilities or shelter for people unable to stay in their own homes because family members have the flu.

The task force is a response to an emerging avian influenza outbreak among birds and other animals in Asia, Europe and Africa. According to the federal Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 285 human cases in 10 countries, resulting in 170 deaths, have been reported since 2003.

All of these cases, according to the "Avian (H5N1) & Pandemic Influenza Update" on the Health department's Web site (www.pandemicflu.utah.gov), have been the result of bird exposures, and "there is no evidence that the virus has mutated and become capable of efficient person-to-person transmission."

Influenza pandemics, the task force report notes, occur inevitably but at unpredictable intervals. When the next pandemic strikes the United States, the report says, an outbreak will last about six to eight weeks in each affected community, although multiple waves could occur. At least 30 percent of the population will become sick — but there likely won't be enough health care professionals or support personnel such as hospital housekeeping staff, the report warns.