From Deseret News archives:

California's GOP primary defies easy predictions

Published: Sunday, March 25, 2007 12:23 a.m. MDT
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Bill Simon, a dyed-in-the-wool conservative who ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor in 2002, is selling Giuliani to some of the state's most conservative leaders. Simon worked for Giuliani when he headed the U.S. Attorney's office in New York. The two were eating breakfast together in New York on the morning of the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center.

Simon's pitch is getting some traction with conservatives because they fear McCain's staunch support for sending more troops to Iraq could be an issue in the general election, and lead to a Democratic victory.

"Of the three leading Republican candidates, none are going to be ideal for conservative Republican activists," said Jon Fleischman, a state GOP party vice chair. "Everyone has to go through the process to compromise and find someone to support." Added Fleischman, who runs the conservative Web site flashreport.org, "They are willing to give Giuliani a pass on the social issues because they believe only he can beat Hillary Clinton."

Simon downplays the split he and others have with Giuliani on key social issues that in other times would have made Giuliani an anathema. Said Simon, "The most important thing for the majority of voters is the picture that emerges of Giuliani when they think of an effective leader." But others point out once Giuliani's positions become better known, he may see some defectors.

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In 2000, John McCain campaigned as the outsider and a year later was lead architect of campaign finance reform, which made him few friends among party regulars. His habit of bucking party interests, however, has not stopped major California Bush supporters from rallying around him, including several who were part of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's team.

But having"The biggest difference from 2000 is that John McCain is not the insurgent, he's the establishment party candidate."

Indeed, McCain has stepped up criticism of how the war has been waged, criticizing former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, but he believes more troops are needed to end the conflict.

"He understands this is a divisive issue but he understands the country needs to come together," said John Peschong, a California adviser to McCain.

In McCain's favor, California voters appreciate independent streaks and he "is someone who has bucked the system, fights government waste and reins in special interests," Peschong said.

Seeking those conservatives who won't back Giuliani, or are uncertain about McCain, Mitt Romney, a political unknown in California, has been staking his claim. The former governor of Massachusetts, who also spearheaded the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, has received support from some former Bush supporters.

"He's trying to shed a blue state image and take on a red-state one," said Bill Whalen, a political analyst at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

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