Will 'Queen' reign? Our movie critic's wish list for who gets an Oscar

I don't know about you, but I don't have a clue about this year's Academy Awards.

There have been several upsets during recent Oscar ceremonies, and most of the key races this year appear to be wide open. In fact, only two of them are considered to be "locks."

That hasn't stopped me from making a few educated guesses. I certainly couldn't do worse than I did last year — when I got only nine of my 16 Oscar predictions right. And I was coming off a 10-for-16 year and an 11-for-15 one before that.

Anyway, here's hoping comedian Ellen DeGeneres, who is hosting Sunday's ceremonies, will be more on her game than I am.

Here are my picks in 18 of the 24 Oscar categories.

BEST PICTURE

• Nominated: "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen."

Will win: "Babel" goes in as a slight favorite, but my gut says it's going to be a big night for "The Departed."

Should win: The classy "Queen," though "The Departed" is worthy as well.

BEST ACTOR

• Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"; Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"; Peter O'Toole, "Venus"; Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"; Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland."

Will win: Whitaker, for his larger-than-life portrayal of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin.

Should win: O'Toole, for his body of work as much as his "Venus" performance.

BEST ACTRESS

• Nominated: Penelope Cruz, "Volver"; Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"; Helen Mirren, "The Queen"; Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"; Kate Winslet, "Little Children."

Will win: Mirren has probably had her acceptance speech written since the nominations were announced.

Should win: Mirren's performance is the strongest of the lot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Nominated: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"; Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"; Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"; Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed."

Will win: Wahlberg, over Murphy, who has fallen from favor in the past couple of weeks.

Should win: The always-intense Hounsou, the best facet of "Blood Diamond."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Nominated: Adriana Barraza, "Babel"; Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"; Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"; Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel."

Will win: Newcomer Hudson, though it was her singing, not her acting, that got her nominated.

Should win: Kikuchi, the best thing about the overrated "Babel."

BEST DIRECTOR

• Nominated: Clint Eastwood, "Letters From Iwo Jima"; Stephen Frears, "The Queen"; Paul Greengrass, "United 93"; Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"; Martin Scorsese, "The Departed."

Will win: Scorsese, though Eastwood could make it a close race.