U.S. must play hand in Asia

WASHINGTON — Last month the leaders of 16 Asian nations met in the Philippines for the second East Asian Summit and agreed to work for better energy security and reduced poverty. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations signed an agreement with China on trade and services and pledged to work toward a broader free-trade agreement. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo of the Philippines, a traditional U.S. ally, declared that "we are happy to have China as our big brother in this region." No Americans were invited to the summit.

Is America's Pacific Century over? Is America losing Asia to China? Not yet. As with all things Asian, the appearance of harmony in the meetings in Cebu does not entirely match reality. Almost all the major leaders at the summit still trust Washington more than their neighbors, China in particular. And while China may be key to the region's economic dynamism, the political model the leaders are increasingly embracing for long-term success is the one championed by the United States.

Take the East Asia Summit itself. When China proposed hosting the meeting two years ago, many in the region reacted with alarm. Singapore and Japan pushed successfully for the inclusion of leaders from India, Australia and New Zealand to balance Chinese influence, and ASEAN won agreement that only its members could host the summits. Meanwhile, Singapore signed a strategic framework agreement granting greater access to U.S. forces, Indonesia took steps that allowed the United States to resume bilateral military contacts, and Vietnam signed an agreement allowing greater religious freedom to help ensure a successful summit with President Bush and closer strategic alignment with Washington. Arroyo's obsequious nod to "big brother" in Beijing aside, Asian leaders are not about to let the Pacific become a Chinese lake.

The regional trade agreements are also less threatening to U.S. interests than they sound. Most economists expect little trade distortion or barriers to American firms from these agreements, which are pockmarked with exemptions. To the extent that more advanced economies such as those of Japan or Singapore are using these intraregional economic discussions to increase transparency, capacity and governance in the less-developed economies, such as Indonesia's, it helps U.S. business. Ultimately, Asia still depends heavily on U.S. capital and foreign direct investment and markets to sustain economic growth.

America's greatest source of soft power in Asia is the Asian embrace of democracy. At its founding, ASEAN members were all led by authoritarian leaders or dictators; the guiding principle of the organization was "noninterference in internal affairs" — a platitude that essentially represented a rejection of universal values.