Obama to formally announce today

WASHINGTON — After formally announcing his presidential quest in Springfield, Ill., today, Sen. Barack Obama will embark on a grueling, nationwide quest that will test the depth and endurance of his instant celebrity.

Up to now, Obama has largely avoided scrutiny in an orchestrated climb fueled by a compelling personal story and an abundance of raw political talent.

But during a three-day, six-stop campaign swing after Springfield that will take him to Iowa, Chicago and on to New Hampshire, Obama likely will begin facing questions about his scant experience, his inconsistent message and the legitimacy of his claim to be an "outsider."

He also might have to get used to manure on his shoes.

"Not too many politicians know what it's like to get up in the morning after sleeping in a small-town motel in Iowa, it's 10 below zero and you have to be in somebody's barn at 7:30 a.m.," said Bill Carrick, who managed former Rep. Richard Gephardt's campaigns for the Democratic nomination in 1988 and 2004. "If you don't have discipline and can't hit the 'on' button fast, you're in trouble,"

Like other Democratic strategists, Carrick marvels at the trajectory of Obama's rise, unmatched in modern American politics.

By the same token, they warn that what lies ahead for him is brutal and incalculable, a challenge even more daunting than in past primary seasons because of the strong field of aspirants and a front-loaded primary that might already have produced the Democratic nominee a year from now.

For Obama — or for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton or former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards — that means winning early after raising enough money, well over $50 million, to compete in as many as 30 caucuses and primaries by February of 2008.

Martin Frost, a former Democratic congressman from Texas and longtime political operative, said the odds are against Obama. He noted the early successes in the presidential quests of former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart in 1984 and Gephardt in 1988, campaigns in which he was involved. Both failed, and each blamed lack of money.

"The biggest problem is going through the meat-grinder," Frost said. "It is a different ball game. You're playing at a different level. I don't care who you are ... When you run for president, it is a game with different rules."