Poor Utah spring runoff predicted

Ask Ray Wilson what's happening with Utah's snowpack, and he has a quick reply: "Well, I guess the answer's 'Not much."'

The lack of much snowfall is not creating a drought, because most of the state's reservoirs, except large ones such as Bear Lake and Pineview Reservoir, are in good shape. But for farmers with junior water rights on such reservoirs, some shortages may occur.

The state's snowpack rose only one-third as much as normal during January, said Wilson, a hydrologist with the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service office in Salt Lake City. That situation is true across most of Utah.

The snowpack is important because it supplies the annual spring runoff, source of much of the irrigation and drinking water used in Utah.

"It looks like the best areas of the state were on the Sevier (River basin) and down in southwestern Utah," Wilson said. "And that was at 45 percent of normal."

The worst snowpack increase was in southeastern Utah, at only 29 percent of the typical January increase. "It was almost flat," Wilson said.

Snowpack watchers believe that streams will be flowing at only 10 percent to 86 percent of the normal spring runoff. The skimpiest should be at North Creek above Monticello, while the best, the 86 percent, is forecast for Big Brush Creek near Vernal.

"Most flows are between 50 and 70 percent" of the typical runoff rush, he said.

However, reservoir storage seems fine. "We've had a couple of good years," he said.

"If you have a junior water right later in the summer, you might not have water. Or you might have one crop instead of two," depending on the sort of water right, he said.

A junior water right is one awarding water if it's available after the owner of an earlier water right in the same area is able to use an allocation.

Odds of the state still developing a normal snowpack at this stage are poor. On the Weber River drainage, the chances are close to zero, he said. Chance of having a typical runoff in the spring is only about 3 percent on the Bear River basin and 3 percent on the region covering the Provo River, Jordan River and Utah Lake system.

"Maybe one in 30 years," there might be enough snow to raise it from this dismal level to normal by time of the runoff in those areas, Wilson said. It is "very rare" to have that much change in precipitation.

The best odds of a normal runoff is the 33 percent chance in southwestern Utah, simply because precipitation is so variable in that area.

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