New study to link use of fossil fuels, global warming

WASHINGTON — By 2030, Illinois will feel like Arkansas now with longer and hotter summers — but with more storms and unpredictable weather, climate researchers predict. By the end of the century, parts of the Midwest could be as steamy as Texas today.

"One thing we clearly know is that it will be a whole lot warmer, and the rainstorms probably not as gentle as when I was growing up on a farm in Carlyle, Ill.," said Donald Wuebbels, a climate researcher and director of the Director of School of Earth, Society and the Environment at the University of Illinois.

Wuebbels and other scientists will tune in this week for the release of a new international study that is expected to make the strongest link yet between the burning of fossil fuels and global warming.

The report will arrive on the heels of key developments in Washington that appear to build momentum for a national plan to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases. But despite a new push by congressional leaders and even a nod to the issue by President Bush, big battles are brewing, with powerful politicians likely to resist dramatic changes that would pain their constituents.

This week's study comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the main international body studying the issue. It represents the latest thinking from more than 2,000 of the world's leading scientists in what is billed as the largest scientific analysis of peer-reviewed literature ever. The report will analyze how the climate has changed over centuries and predict how it will change in the future.

Sources familiar with the study said last week that it will conclude that there's roughly a 90 percent certainty that most of the planet's warming since the mid-20th century can be traced to human activities.

The report also will affirm previous reports that glaciers are melting even more quickly than had been believed while fine-tuning predictions about how much oceans will rise in coming years, according to U.S. experts and leaked information. It will be released in Paris on Friday.

Experts say the findings will reinforce the widely held belief that the planet is rapidly warming, something 3 in 4 Americans already think, polls show.

"Mild winters or the lack of winter, melting glaciers — these are the things that get people's attention and are driving the political system," said Vicky Arroyo, director of policy analysis at the nonpartisan Pew Center on Global Climate Change in Washington.