Just how strong is the MLS?

As if Salt Lake County politicians didn't have enough to worry about as they ponder spending millions in tax dollars on a new soccer stadium, here's something else to consider: the future of Major League Soccer overall.

Beneath concerns over Real Salt Lake's viability, there is the underlying issue of whether the league itself is solvent. Too bad County Mayor Peter Corroon can't order an investigation into that.

There is some good news for Real, though. It is making headlines.

If publicity is the key to a sports team's success, RSL should thrive.

These days, it is constantly in the news. Team officials have accused skeptics, including Corroon, of being unsophisticated and overly cautious.

It will all work out, they say. All the team needs to do is build a $110 million stadium and attract 16,000 or 17,000 people to 70 events a year.

But the team requires $30 million in hotel tax revenue from the county and $15 million from Sandy to make it work.

A small price to have big league soccer in town, right?

Maybe. As long as it sticks around.

Whether pro soccer is a good investment depends largely on whether you believe the projections — and whose projections you believe. RSL's plans are the Norman Vincent Peale variety. The team believes it can sell around 17,000 tickets to 11 or more concerts a year, as well as draw 16,000 or more fans to each soccer game. But an independent study says there could actually be as few as two concerts annually.

The team also believes it can raise game ticket prices sharply in the first four years of the stadium's existence. That won't be an easy sell.

Perhaps this is a good place for full disclosure on my part.

I've known RSL owner Dave Checketts for nearly 17 years. He is a big thinker. My idea of dreaming is to go skydiving; his idea is to take a spaceship to Pluto. He didn't get to be president of an NBA team when he was in his 20s without thinking big. If I'd had Checketts around to give me confidence when I was in high school, I might have actually had some dates.

At the same time, supreme confidence can be a blind spot. Have enough success, you sometimes start thinking you're bulletproof.