Vouchers to be a key legislative issue

One of the more interesting legislative sessions ever starts tomorrow. Here are some things to watch as the session progresses.

• Pignanelli: A trifecta (for those of you who have not been good neighbors and visited the recreational opportunities in our surrounding states) is a specialty wager made in the horse tracks. A successful trifecta gamble requires the exact identification of horses to finish in the three top spots in the order they finish. This is an extremely difficult wager, but the rare win guarantees a huge payoff.

The Utah Conservative Caucus is betting "the farm" on a legislative trifecta. These right-of-center lawmakers are wagering their newfound political capital on passing three controversial measures in the upcoming session: education vouchers, a restrictive state government spending cap, and a substantial income tax cut (beyond the tinkering in tax reform). One of these items could succeed in any given year, but to achieve all three in the 45-day session is a tall order. With a $1.5 billion surplus, the caucus has no choice but to demonstrate a commitment to its ideology. For years, Utah's general revenues have increased at a rate far beyond inflation and population growth. This situation chokes conservatives, who are demanding a restrictive spending cap on state government. To further constrain state government expansion, caucus members are advocating an income tax reduction exceeding $100 million. A number of powerful special interests are lining up in the buffet line to consume the surplus, a huge obstacle to the conservatives in achieving their goals.

Assisting families who choose a private education buttresses conservatives' worship of free-market principles. They are convinced the subsidization of freedom of choice will diminish public education costs and promote quality. These contentions will be countered aggressively by moderate Republicans and Democrats, thereby setting the stage for the session's hottest battle (as LaVarr notes below).

The time is right for the conservative caucus to make the wager. Many politicos believed the recent resurrection of the caucus would lead to nothing more than a forum for right-wing crazies to scream at each other. But under the leadership of GOP rising star Greg Hughes, R-Draper, and other Republicans, the group has gained significant momentum. They are impacting transportation and tax policy, in addition to maintaining their own PAC to assist colleagues.

The session ends at midnight Feb. 28. If only one of the favored bills crosses the finish line, the conservative legislative movement suffers a setback. But if all three "picks" are awarded Win, Place and Show, the caucus wins big: recognition as the most powerful political force in the state.