Utah firms stay optimistic

Utah business leaders are "cautiously optimistic" about the coming quarter, even as forecasters predict a slowing economy in 2007, according to a new report from Zions Bank.

The bank's Utah Quarterly Economic Forecast, conducted by research firm Dan Jones & Associates, surveyed 1,159 Utah business executives in early October. Of those, 29 percent of respondents rated their level of "optimism" a 9 or 10, on a scale of 1 to 10 (very pessimistic to very optimistic). That was down from second-quarter survey results to the same question, when 33 percent of respondents rated their optimism at that level.

"Our most recent study shows that executives from a variety of industries remain cautiously optimistic about effects of the economic climate on their businesses," Pat Jones, co-owner of Dan Jones & Associates, said in a prepared statement.

This is the second in what Zions envisions as an ongoing survey series. The first polled business leaders in July.

At that time, 16 percent of respondents said they believed their company's economic health would be "much better," compared to 17 percent in the newer poll, while 39 percent said they expected their company's economic health would be about the same, compared to 36 percent in the most recent survey.

A higher percentage (31 percent) of business leaders in the new survey said they anticipate spending less on capital expenditures, compared to 19 percent of respondents in the second-quarter survey. Twenty-five percent of respondents in the new survey said they planned to spend more.

Top concerns listed were:

• Finding qualified employees.

• The cost of health insurance for employees.

• Keeping qualified employees.

Gas prices, which topped the list during the second quarter poll, fell to fourth place in the new survey.

"The big issue is where do you find people to hire, and this is especially true for small businesses," said Jeff Thredgold, economic consultant to Zions Bank and head of Salt Lake-based Thredgold Economic Associates. "They're frustrated in their inability to find people to hire and scared to death about losing their key people to competitors."

Which is a real concern, Thredgold said, given the state's historically low unemployment rate, last measured at 2.5 percent. Those concerns, along with rumblings from national economic forecasters about a possible recession in the coming year, likely have added the caution to business leaders' optimism, he said.