Many factors fuel Demos' rise in West

DENVER — A wave of Democratic blue is splashing the fast-growing Rocky Mountain West, which until recently was so Republican that all eight states in the region went red for President Bush in 2004.

Democrats are celebrating their Election Day seizure of a U.S. Senate seat, a governorship, three U.S. House seats and other major offices in Rocky Mountain states. That extends a trend started in 2002 with winning three governor seats. Now, Democrats are hoping to break the Republican lock on the inland West in the 2008 presidential race.

The region's results Nov. 7 tracked with Democratic successes in the Northeast and Midwest. The question is whether the Western shifts indicate a fluke, the normal turn of a cycle or a permanent realignment.

Some Republicans say their party should gird for long-term trouble. "The West is not going to be as definitively conservative and Republican as it has been," says Eddie Mahe, a veteran GOP campaign strategist. "The Rocky Mountain West is probably trending to look more like a lot of the remainder of the country, not quite as unique as it once was."

Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican, says, "Many of the Democratic leaders in the region have co-opted Republican issues. It signals the success of certain traditional Western conservative values. Republicans in this region should stick to their knitting. We should focus on that which we do best — economic vitality, immigration, the environment, energy efficiency and tax reform."

Randy Pullen, a Republican National Committee member from Arizona, says the election was a one-shot loss. "This election was a referendum on the president," he says. "We'll fare better in two years."

The political changes mean both national parties will pay more attention to the West, says Michael Stratton, a Democratic campaign strategist in Denver. "It sets the grounds for the candidacy of a president who can speak Western issues," he says.

Starting to pay attention

University of Maryland-Baltimore County political scientist Thomas Schaller says Democrats should develop a strategy for 2008 that would cede the South to the GOP. Schaller says in his book, "Whistling Past Dixie," Democrats could reach the needed 270 electoral votes by winning Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and other targets in the Mountain West. Midwestern states also would get more attention. "The West is not cowpokes and tumbleweeds, if it ever was," he says. "It's changing rapidly."

Signs that the Democratic Party is getting the message: