New Iraq strategy in works

WASHINGTON — After meeting with President Bush Monday, a panel of prestigious Americans will begin deliberations to chart a new course on Iraq, with the goal of trying to stabilize the country with a different U.S. strategy and possibly begin withdrawing more than 140,000 troops.

Tuesday's dramatic election results, widely seen as a repudiation of the Bush Iraq policy, has thrust the 10-member, bipartisan Iraq Study Group into an unusual position, similar to that played by the 9/11 Commission. This panel, led by former Secretary of State James Baker and former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton, may play a decisive role in reshaping America's position in Iraq, according to lawmakers and administration officials.

Those familiar with the panel's work predict the ultimate recommendations will not appear novel and that there are few, if any, good options left facing the country. Many of the ideas reportedly being considered — more aggressive regional diplomacy with Syria and Iran and greater emphasis on training Iraqi troops or focusing on a new political deal between warring Shiite and Sunni factions — have either been tried or have limited chances of success, in the view of many experts on Iraq. Baker is also exploring whether a broader U.S. initiative in tackling the Arab-Israeli conflict is needed to help stabilize the region.

Given the grave predicament the group faces, its focus is now as much on finding a political solution for the United States as it is on finding a plan that would bring peace to Iraq. With Republicans and Democrats so bitterly divided over the war, Baker and Hamilton believe that it is vital that his group produce a consensus plan, according to those who have spoken with him.

That could appeal to both parties. Democrats would have something to support after a campaign in which they criticized Bush's Iraq policy without offering many specifics of their own. And with support for its Iraq policy fast evaporating even within its own party, the White House might find in the group's plan either a politically acceptable exit strategy or cover for a continued effort to prop up the new democratically elected government in Baghdad.

'A huge signal'

"Baker's objectives for the Iraq Study Group are grounded in his conviction that Iraq is the central foreign policy issue confronting the United States, and that the only way to address that issue successfully is to first build a bipartisan consensus," said Arnold Kanter, who served as undersecretary of state under Baker during the first Bush administration.