Trend toward centrist candidates may transform parties

WASHINGTON — White House hopefuls can expect to find an altered campaign trail more favorable to moderate candidates and less tolerant of those who seem arrogant or prone to ethical lapses.

Reading the results of the Democrats' midterm election takeover of Congress, campaign experts also say presidential aspirants can expect to be pinned down on their strategies for ending the Iraq war.

The path to the White House is strewn with failed aspirants who ran presidential campaigns with battle plans based on past elections. But the results last week were so decisive and voter preferences so unmistakably clear that the current candidates had better take note, analysts say.

A clear trend was voters' desire for a return to the center in governing — a message that could transform the race for the 2008 presidential nomination in both parties.

"Things have changed enormously," said Steffen Schmidt, a professor at Iowa State University.

In Schmidt's view, the election of Democratic moderates across the country could be favorable to centrist aspirants like Tom Vilsack, Iowa's little-known governor who on Thursday began a campaign for the presidency.

Schmidt also believes that the election results do not bode well for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton because of her liberal credentials, real or perceived.

Washington University's Wayne Fields, who has a national reputation as an expert in political debate, also believes that voters' preference last week for moderation "complicates the picture for somebody like Hillary Clinton, who comes with a lot of baggage."

He added, "One of the important things reflected Tuesday was an extraordinary frustration with the arrogance of politicians. Not just toward them and the war, but toward the contempt they have for others' opinions."

Government that works

Political historian Allan Lichtman, a failed candidate himself in Maryland's Democratic senatorial primary this year, saw voters' response to corruption in Washington as a key lesson for White House hopefuls.

"We knew people were disgusted with the war," said Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington. "The surprise was the extent to which people responded to the corruption and how tired they are of sold-out government. People want a government that works for them, not one that is sold-out, and on the Republican side, that works for John McCain."