In major races, incumbents likely will win

This is my yearly column predicting who will win election next Tuesday. These are only predictions. Usually I'm right; sometimes I'm wrong. This is one year it will be easier to be right than wrong.

In all the major races, the incumbent wins.

We will have Sen. Orrin Hatch for six more years. Hatch raised more money this year than ever before — as if he needed it to defeat political newcomer Democrat Pete Ashdown.

But there has been growing dissatisfaction with Hatch over the recent years. At 72, this may be his last re-election. And 36 years in the U.S. Senate — a record for Utah — may be enough for the senator and Utah voters.

Rep. Chris Cannon has survived another difficult re-election year. Republicans keep challenging Cannon for the GOP nomination in the 3rd Congressional District. And he keeps beating back their efforts. Democrat Christian Burridge, like all the Democrats before him, was not able to make much headway against Cannon in the very Republican district.

Cannon may not be the most popular of congressmen — his job approval ratings show that. But so far no one has been able to knock him out of office, and it won't happen this year, either.

Rep. Jim Matheson, the only Democrat in the Utah delegation, keeps his 2nd Congressional District seat as well.

GOP state Rep. LaVar Christensen's campaign never took hold. Matheson's popularity in his geographically huge district is stunning. Earlier this year, he was more popular among his constituents than GOP Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. or any other major Republican officeholder.

Quietly, I believe, Utah's Republican hierarchy recognized this. And while they gave Christensen lip-service and some money, the Republicans didn't beat up on Matheson. In fact, last spring Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, went down to St. George with Matheson (a GOP stronghold that Matheson has made some headway in) to announce he was teaming with the Democrat on a Utah lands bill.

Not a good sign for Christensen.

Christensen ran a clean, tough race. But just telling Utahns they had to vote for him because he was a Republican didn't cut it — as it hasn't for previous Matheson challengers. Christensen, who has spent nearly $500,000 of his own money, could really get thumped Tuesday.