Pignanelli & Webb: During the summer, most politicos predicted few changes in the partisan makeup of the Utah Legislature. Proving the rule that politics is never stagnant, electoral dynamics have changed in a number of local races. As noted in prior columns, these recent developments are due to challengers who are stronger and more aggressive than expected, or the intervention of external forces such as school choice interests and the Utah Education Association.
While both Republican and Democratic party leaders officially predict they will pick up seats this year, insiders now view a number of contests for the House of Representatives as too close to call:
District 36 (Olympus Cove, Millcreek) Incumbent Susan Lawrence, an educator and manager, is a moderate Republican with a legislative track record focused on criminal issues including background checks for day-care providers. With a friendly manner and gracious attitude, she has won friends on both sides of the political spectrum. Although Democrats have eyed this Republican swing district for many years, in the last two races Lawrence easily dispatched her hard-working opponents. Most political observers figured that Lawrence had an easy lock on this seat for decades.
However, Democratic challenger Phil Riesen is providing Lawrence the race of her political life. Riesen is a successful businessman, well known by most Utahns over 40 years old (a key demographic in this area) as a former TV anchorman and reporter. With a strong grass-roots campaign (having knocked on every door), Riesen is gaining traction among Independents and Republicans expressing a desire for more balance in the Legislature. Through sheer personality and hard work, Riesen has transformed this contest into one of the most-watched races. Even more fascinating (and refreshing) is these candidates have refrained from negative campaigning.
District 32 (West Valley City) This swing district is always a nail biter on election night. Although Republican incumbent Ron Bigelow, CPA and LDS Church employee, is one of the most powerful members of the Legislature as co-chairman of the Appropriations Committee, he consistently faces tough challenges every two years. In the 2004 presidential year he squeaked by with 51 percent of the vote. This year, without President Bush at the top of the ticket, the contest could be even closer. Bigelow is one of the most guileless and humble elected officials at the Capitol. While this may help him with heavenly aspirations, such modesty can sometimes be a political detriment.
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