Matheson has built his congressional career on being — by national standards — a conservative Democrat. A member of the "Blue Dog" fiscally conservative Democratic caucus, he has also voted with Republicans on all kinds of so-called "moral" issues, from banning certain types of abortions to voting for a flag-burning constitutional amendment and against gay marriages.

It is hard to imagine that Democratic House leaders would reward Matheson with important committee assignments, or even a subcommittee chairmanship, should they gain control of the next Congress.

Worse for Matheson locally, if a Democratic-controlled House spends the next two years investigating President Bush (there's even been talk of House impeachment hearings); if partisanship gets even uglier in the run up to the 2008 presidential elections; if Democratic leaders push a liberal agenda, with tax hikes, assaults on so-called "family values" or promote other agendas opposed by the Christian Right; then it would be much easier to paint Matheson with the liberal Democratic brush in 2008, no matter how he tries to disassociate himself from his own national party leaders.

For four straight elections now, Matheson's GOP opponents' main theme is that 2nd District voters — especially Republicans — must not vote for Matheson, because he'll just vote for Democratic leaders and the national Democratic agenda.

State Rep. LaVar Christensen, R-Sandy, Matheson's opponent this year, is now running TV ads saying that Utah must stand up for America and vote against the Democratic incumbent. The House hangs in the balance, says Christensen.

Such stuff hasn't worked against Matheson before. And with Matheson leading Christensen 60-24 percent in a recent Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll, it doesn't seem to be working this year, either.

The poll by Dan Jones & Associates shows that Matheson is still getting 35 percent of the GOP vote.

Secretly, Matheson and his key supporters may be quietly rubbing their hands together in joy over the prospect of Matheson getting a new 2nd District containing so many Democrats.

Matheson may need all those Democrats to hold his seat if his party wins a House majority.

---

Deseret Morning News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com