Job growth slipping

What was that?

The sound of a hot economy losing a little velocity as suggested by the latest jobs figures, released Tuesday by the Utah Department of Workforce Services. Those figures recount a dip in the unemployment rate to 3.2 percent in August, down from July's unrevised 3.4 percent, and a year-over decrease in the rate of employment growth to 4.4 percent. July's employment growth rate was revised downward to 4.6 percent.

"The tightening labor supply is apparently beginning to restrict Utah's economic expansion," Mark Knold, senior economist for the department, wrote in the report. "Additional workers come from either non-participants entering or returning to the labor force, or a steady in-flow of migrating workers. It seems that the Utah economy is experiencing a slight labor force bottleneck."

While the data from neighboring Nevada and Arizona, which have employment growth rates higher than Utah's, suggest a "substantial and consistent in-flow of in-migration," Knold said in the report that "Utah's in-migration, on the other hand, though historically high, still doesn't seem to be high enough to keep the engine at full throttle."

Austin Sargent, regional economist with Workforce Services, added that there is some speculation that people looking for work are finding it first in Nevada and Arizona and that Utah is suffering from a "secondary effect limiting in-migration."

"I think it's probably more a lag effect, because people moving into this area from other areas are maybe hitting Arizona and Nevada first before coming to Utah and Idaho," Sargent said. "If they (Arizona and Nevada) start to slow down and we continue to grow, we'll probably start to see some migrate further north or west than they previously have. Because it does seem to be in some of our industries, particularly in construction and in mining, that companies have work that they could be doing, but as of now they're unable to fill those jobs."

All of the Utah job sectors included in the monthly analysis saw growth. Construction continued its strong showing, adding 13,000 jobs over the past 12 months. The trade, transportation and utilities sector added 5,600 jobs, while the education and health sector grew by 4,800 jobs during the year-over period. The information sector added the fewest jobs, at 600 for the year.

"One sector appears to be the sole influence for this slight slowing in the Utah economy — professional and business services," Knold wrote.

That sector added 10,300 new jobs over the past year, a growth rate of 6.9 percent. However, Knold noted, the sector has seen growth of more than 12,000 jobs during a reporting period.

"This is the only sector that has experienced a measurable throttling back of employment growth over the past three months," Knold wrote. "It appears to be largely in the employment services component of this industry represented mainly by firms that supply temporary workers to businesses. When labor becomes exceedingly tight, it is only natural that this area would be one of the first to show a significant employment slowing."

Still, Sargent said Utah's economic future remains "pretty bright."

"We are creating jobs at a healthy pace, in a growing economy," he said. "We expect kind of a nice, steady rate of growth. But we'll probably continue to gradually slow down to a more historical level — not overnight, though, because I think there's enough energy and activity in our economy to keep it going."

Earlier this month, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the national unemployment rate was 4.7 percent, down from 4.8 percent in the previous month.

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E-mail: jnii@desnews.com