Diplomacy rules in dealing with Iran

On Thursday, the date by which Iran has been warned to suspend its enrichment of uranium, the day will presumably pass with Iran doing no such thing. The United Nations Security Council will probably be divided on what to do about it. The United States will be pondering what its next nonmilitary options might be, designed to make Iran see the error of its nuclear ways.

In the days leading up to the expiring ultimatum, Iran's leaders have fired a broadside of defiant statements. Iran's predictably provocative president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, pointedly inaugurated a new heavy-water reactor at the weekend as a rebuff to those who want his country to stop its uranium processing.

Ahmadinejad says the reactor will be used only for peaceful purposes. Given Iran's long record of duplicity about its nuclear ambitions, Western European nations and the United States believe it will be used to produce nuclear weapons.

A House Intelligence Committee last week warned: "A nuclear-armed Iran would likely embolden the leadership in Tehran to advance its aggressive ambitions in and outside of the region, both directly and through the terrorists it supports — ambitions that gravely threaten the stability and security of U.S. friends and allies."

Russia and China have substantial economic interests in Iran. While they have paid lip service to the U.N. Security Council's demand that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment, they are weak sisters when it comes to joining with the other permanent members of the Security Council, France, Britain and the United States, in giving Iran anything but a tap on the wrist for defying the United Nations.

Thus the dilemma for the United States is how best to contain the potential nuclear threat Iran poses, either alone or in concert with others who have the resolve to join it.

While the White House routinely declares that everything, including military force, is always on the table, there is clearly little appetite in Washington for any military action against Iran in the near future. Public opinion at home would be unlikely to sustain it. U.S. forces are already fully extended in Afghanistan and Iraq. Midterm elections loom and another major military venture could tip an uneasy electorate against the Republicans.

Thus diplomacy, for the moment, rules. First the United States must determine whether the Iranian response last week to a generous Western package of inducements, offered in return for ceasing uranium processing, is just a time-buying ruse to continue moving its nuclear weapons program forward, or whether there is yet a slim chance of some negotiated agreement.