With Fidel Castro currently, and perhaps permanently, not controlling events in Cuba, how should the United States react?
If there is one thing on which many Cuba-watchers seem to agree, it is that we will not see a seamless succession to Castro's brother. With or without Raul Castro, a transition will take place, the shape of which will involve changes not yet clear. As one Cuban-American with good sources within Cuba puts it: "When you break an egg, you can make fried egg or scrambled egg, but you cannot re-create the egg."
What the United States would like to see is a dramatic shift away from dictatorial rule, with Cuba emerging as a democracy with a robust free-market economy. Though Iraq and Lebanon dominate the Bush administration's foreign policy agenda, President Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and White House spokesman Tony Snow have all taken time to stress this in public statements. Concern about Cuba's future has been heightened in Washington since left-leaning Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez succeeded Russia as Cuba's patron and savior, finding common political cause with Fidel Castro and propping up Cuba's ailing economy with subsidized Venezuelan oil.
How can the United States encourage reform and democracy in Cuba? First, by encouraging a free information flow to a country whose citizens have long been subjected by its government to censorship and propaganda. I understand that TV-Marti and Radio Marti, the U.S. government-sponsored broadcasting entities that beam news to Cuba much as Radio Free Europe did to the captive nations of eastern Europe during the Cold War, will soon be operating on an extended basis from EC-130E/J Commando Solo aircraft maintained by the U.S. Air Force. This airborne delivery will hopefully overcome Cuban jamming, which has prevented many Cubans from watching and listening to these broadcast reports. By this and other means, the United States can support the dissidents in Cuba and underline the atrocious human-rights records of the Castro regime.
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