Afghan situation daunting for NATO

KABUL, Afghanistan — Southern Afghanistan, homeland of the Taliban and hub of the global heroin trade, is spinning out of control.

Islamic militants are launching suicide attacks, corrupt authorities are undermining the central government and a disgruntled population is hooked on growing opium.

On Monday, fixing Afghanistan's biggest problem area falls to NATO, the Western military alliance. It promises to be the toughest combat mission in NATO's 57-year history and a stern test for a powerful force with surprisingly little experience in fighting.

"A lot of different forces are coalescing to drive the coalition out," said Joanna Nathan, an analyst with the International Crisis Group. "It's not just Taliban. It's a complex alliance of people who don't want to see the rule of law in Afghanistan."

The future of Afghanistan as a Western-style democracy could ride on the success or failure of the 8,000 mostly British, Dutch and Canadian forces that have moved into the southern region. Five years after U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban regime that hosted al-Qaida, the country is in danger of again becoming an international terrorist haven.

And with the Arab-Israeli conflict raging and Iraqi mired in daily violence, failure in Afghanistan would leave the West in disarray on three of its main battlegrounds in the war on terror.

The credibility of the 26-nation Western military alliance, established in 1949 to deter the Soviet bloc, is also at stake. While it has engaged in peace missions and aerial bombing campaigns such as in Kosovo in 1999, NATO has limited experience in ground combat.

Francesc Vendrell, the European Union's special representative for Afghanistan, said Wednesday that because of the concerns over Afghanistan's future, NATO must not fail. "We are not going to tolerate any kind of haven for terrorists in Afghanistan," he said.

The strong rhetoric reflects growing concern that the multinational effort to bring democracy and stability to Afghanistan is going awry.

Over the past year, Taliban-led militants regained effective control over large tracts of their southern heartland. They have adopted destructive terrorist tactics seen in Iraq and have launched major attacks, this month even managing to briefly control two southern towns — unprecedented during the previous four years.

Another pressing concern is the drug trade. Last year, Afghanistan produced nearly 90 percent of the world's opium, the raw material of heroin. Much of it is grown by poppy farmers in the south.