'100 eyes for eye' in Mideast battle

When Ibrahim Karawan learned Israel had struck back at Hezbollah militants in Lebanon this week, he knew the battle would not be short-lived.

He also knew the situation could quickly escalate, threatening to tip larger powers like Iran and Syria into the conflict.

"It didn't require any high IQ to figure out that the Israeli reaction to the kidnapping of two soldiers was going to be massive," said Karawan, director of the University of Utah Middle East Center, who just returned from a summit on tensions in the Middle East. "It's not an eye for an eye, but 100 eyes for an eye."

Until an agreement is reached, Karawan said the conflict will grow until fatigue forces one side to put an end to the warfare.

Until then, he said Americans will see the effects of the region's discontent in higher oil prices. Crude oil already had surged to $77 a barrel Friday, but Karawan said he would not be surprised to see those numbers bump up to $90 per barrel. In addition, Karawan said the conflicts might fuel an increase in terrorist attacks.

While there's no evidence those attacks would be on American soil, he said they will be targeted at Americans throughout the world because of its relationship with Israel.

"If they cannot reach Israel, then Americans are everywhere. Americans are quite visible," he said. "It is difficult to make Americans hide. It is important to follow what is happening in the region and to exercise a degree of caution."

Brigham Young University leaders said Friday they are watching the violence in Israel in light of their decision to reopen the Jerusalem Center this fall. No decision has been made yet on whether that opening is still on track.

"All that we're saying at this point is we're aware of the situation — we're monitoring," said Grant Madsen, BYU spokesman.

Hezbollah militants moved from southern Lebanon into Israel this week, where they kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed others. Israel responded with air raids on Beirut that shut down airports and roadways in Lebanon. On Friday, Hezbollah rammed an unmanned aircraft into an Israeli ship Friday as leaders threatened an "open war."

While the battle is raging between Hezbollah and Israel, Karawan believes the conflict is really a "war by proxy," with the United States and Israel on one side facing Iran and Syria. The larger powers are perched to fall in and escalate the war, he said. If Israeli leaders suspect Syria of supporting Hezbollah, the war could quickly become a regional conflict, pulling in Iran as well with its already stressed relations with the United States over nuclear missiles, he said.