Lebanon violence adds to U.S. woes

WASHINGTON — Israel's two-front conflict with Lebanon and Palestinian Gaza has challenged the Bush administration's hopes for democratic gains in the region and spotlighted Syria and Iran as patrons of the Hezbollah guerrillas.

The renewed violence has also dimmed the prospects for a near-term Israeli-Arab peace accord, as the regional diplomatic focus shifts to efforts to try to prevent Thursday's escalating violence from boiling over into all-out war.

And the rockets that Islamic militants fired at Israel on Thursday were also a kind of proxy shot at the United States, analysts said, at a time when the grinding war in Iraq and the stalemate over Iran's nuclear program have undercut American clout in the volatile region.

As events continued to unfold late Thursday, the early loser appeared to be the moderate Lebanese government, elected just 13 months ago amid celebrations and hopes for a democratic revolution on the streets of Beirut.

With little control over its southern hinterlands, where Hezbollah militia groups are a law unto themselves, Lebanon found itself caught in the cross hairs, its airport targeted by Israeli bombs at the height of the Lebanese tourist season.

By Thursday, President Bush was publicly worried about the future of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Bush's own stake in promoting a U.S. Middle East policy calling for greater democracy.

"My biggest concern is whether or not actions taken will weaken the Siniora government," Bush told reporters traveling with him in Germany. "Democracy in Lebanon is an important part of laying a foundation for peace in that region."

"America was counting on Lebanon as a cornerstone for its forward policy in the Middle East — democracy and winning allies to the U.S. side," said Joshua Landis, assistant professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Oklahoma. "This is a big blow."

Critics of Israel and the Bush administration blamed Israel for the escalating violence. They claim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert — after just three months on the job — overreacted to the June 25 capture of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian militants in Gaza, and then did the same by shelling Lebanon in response to the killing of eight Israeli troops and the capture of two more in southern Lebanon Wednesday.

But the events of the past two days demonstrated that the Lebanese government remains weak and Hezbollah appears to be the major political and military force in the country.