S.L., Dixie meetings assess bird flu risk

No trace of avian influenza has been found in Utah this year, but Wednesday morning, those who would respond to a pandemic crisis gathered in Salt Lake City to play a game of "what if?" — while a conference in St. George also assessed the potential consequences of a bird-flu outbreak.

"It's like asking why a baseball team practices," said Mike Marshall, state veterinarian, who attended the Salt Lake event. "You practice to get good at what you do."

The "what if" game, a "tabletop exercise" sponsored by the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, involved natural-resource, health, public-safety, environmental-quality and other state officials, as well as representatives from egg companies and feed producers, the poultry industry. Professional associations representing farmers and cattlemen joined the mix, along with county governments, Tracy Aviary and Hogle Zoo.

The goal was to test drive the state's response plan to an influenza A outbreak, using a scenario centered on a fictional farm in Moroni that raises "Super Duper Turkeys."

Make-believe owners Maggie and Bill notice one morning that the birds are a little lethargic. Shortly after, the turkeys have nasal discharge. And by afternoon, many of them are clearly sick, some even dead. It's time to call in the company vet, who will in turn call in the state vet.

The situation snowballs from there, with two other poultry farms affected. Then Maggie and Bill get sick and have to be hospitalized. To add to the stress, an unknown group is claiming responsibility for infecting the birds.

While state officials can't predict whether real avian flu will ever turn into the dreaded pandemic they're preparing for, there's little question that at some point there will be a flu pandemic. It typically happens several times a century, with varying degrees of severity. The goal is to figure out what to do before it happens, said agriculture commissioner Leonard Blackham.

The response would depend in part on the strain. A low-pathogen form of bird flu would likely kill a lot of birds but would not infect people. A high-pathogen form would kill almost all the birds and "could mutate into a people problem," Marshall said.

Utah's plan emphasizes monitoring, including the mandate that every domestic bird brought into Utah have a health certificate. It includes testing of sample birds from commercial poultry farms on a regular basis.