Enrollment dry spell?

Utah's colleges and universities are facing a dry spell in enrollment, and predictions for future growth don't offer much hope.

Population estimates for college-age residents in Utah are flat for at least the next 10 years, and the percentage of those 18- to 24-year-olds actually going to college could dip because of untapped minority populations, said Pam Perlich, senior researcher at the University of Utah.

Already, the percentage of college-age Utahns attending college dropped from 40 percent in 1990 to 36 percent in 2000. Utah is losing ground because as minorities make up an increasingly larger share of the population, the percentage of residents who get a degree goes down, Perlich said.

Only 24 percent of Hispanic or Mexican college-age residents attend college in Utah, compared to 39 percent of white college-age residents, according to Perlich.

"People are coming to the state to work on construction as employment grows. Are they coming to go to college? No. They are coming for jobs," said Perlich, who recently completed a study on college enrollment. "Even the minority kids that are here and could go into the college population are not, in many cases."

Utah's system of nine colleges and universities is beginning to feel those predictions, posting losses this year after a decade of growth. This year, the system as a whole lost 1 percent of its students. Some lost more, including the College of Eastern Utah, which was down almost 8 percent.

Higher education leaders aren't ignoring the numbers.

Rich Kendell, Utah commissioner of higher education, is trying to counter the population forecasts by ramping up recruitment of minority students, as well as other under-represented groups such as working students, who take longer as a rule to earn a degree, and students who drop out before finishing their degrees.

"We are less concerned about the demographic, which you don't have any control over. The number of 18- to 24-year-olds is what it is," Kendell said. "Our message has always been better preparation for high school students and greater participation among college students."

Maintaining enrollment numbers is important to allow institutions to expand opportunities and programs, Kendell added. The bigger issue, however, is making sure that a substantial percentage of Utah's workforce is college-educated, he said.