Jazz draftee should sign a prenup

Barring last-minute maneuverings, the Jazz will pick 14th in Wednesday's NBA Draft. What that means is they could acquire a player as good as Peja Stojakovic, who was taken in that spot by the Kings in 1996.

Or they might end up with a Michael Dickerson, picked No. 14 by Houston in '98, or even Kris Humphries, the Jazz's pick in '04.

Possible choices this year range from Duke's J.J. Redick to Villanova's Randy Foye to Ukranian power forward Olexsiy Percherov to Arkansas guard Ronnie Brewer. Conventional wisdom says the Jazz will try for a shooting guard to complement Deron Williams. Some experts say they'll take a chance on Senegal's 7-foot project, Saer Sene.

Whatever the case, unless the Jazz move up in the draft, plan on this year's pick having a short stay in Utah. That's because with the exception of Williams, at No. 3 last year, the team's recent first round draft choices simply haven't worked out.

They all ended up in amiable divorces.

If precedent holds, whomever they draft at No. 14 won't be the answer to getting them back to the playoffs. In fact, this year's pick probably won't even be around in a couple of years. For varying reasons, the Jazz have treated first-round selections the way Donald Trump treats cash — there's a steady flow both coming in and going out.

The Jazz jettisoned Humphries after two seasons, trading him along with Robert Whaley to Toronto for Rafael Araujo last month. That brings to five the number of first-round draft picks since 2001 that have stayed two years or fewer. Joining Humphries on the list are Raul Lopez, Curtis Borchardt, Sasha Pavlovic and Kirk Snyder. Add to that 2000 first-round pick DeShawn Stevenson — traded after 3 1/2 years to Orlando — and what do you have?

A lot of failed or changed plans.

Don't forget draft day trade-aways Nazr Mohammed (29th in '98) and Martin Muursepp (25th in '96), both of whom didn't even have time to find Utah on a map before being moved.

Not that the Jazz always fail to retain their picks. One fairly recent success story was the No. 24 pick in 1999, Andrei Kirilenko.

Still, they had to wait two years while he matured in Europe to realize it.

So if you're a first-rounder selected by the Jazz, pack light and be sure to rent, not buy. If you have a wife and/or kids, keep them back home. Don't change your cell number and keep your home-state driver's license.