Monthly surplus estimates halt

After the quick retirement of the Utah State Tax Commission's top economist last month, tax commissioners have stopped providing exact monthly estimates of state tax surpluses — surpluses that have at times been the subject of political embarrassments for the state's top politicians.

Tax Commission Chairwoman Pam Hendrickson said Friday that the TC23 monthly revenue estimate reports will now carry broad ranges of surplus or deficits, not the exact, tax-by-tax breakdowns that were prepared by former Tax Commission Chief Economist Doug Macdonald.

The public, legislators, the governor's office and the media at times all awaited with interest the monthly reports to get an idea of whether the state was running surpluses or deficits.

"Getting those monthly numbers was the most interesting part of our meetings," said Rep. Carol Spackman Moss, a member of the Legislature's Revenue and Taxation interim committee.

Whether the state is running a surplus or deficit "is central to all we do," said Moss, D-Holladay. "How can we debate our policy, where the money should go, if they won't tell us the numbers?"

Tax Commissioner Palmer DePaulis said that Macdonald alone had developed a "tax smoothing" model, honed by years of experience, that Macdonald did not leave with the commission when he retired suddenly last month. (Macdonald could not be reached for comment.)

"Should we try to cobble together" a new tax revenue model? asked DePaulis, or should the commission just give rough "trend lines" to the public and Legislature?

After briefing legislative leaders, it was the commissioners' recommendation to go with trend line numbers.

There's a 25-year history of the TC23 reports resulting in headline-grabbing accounts of huge state budget revenue surpluses or deficits — and the accompanying political pressure to cut taxes and/or spend more money on needed state programs.

Macdonald, who oversaw the TC23's monthly preparations, resigned quickly last month after he was given a warning letter by DePaulis telling him and his two professional economists that they were not to give their personal opinions on legislation or other tax matters.

That led to questions about whether the tax commissioners — who are appointed by the governor and confirmed by the Senate — were trying to gag employees. The commission has not yet decided whether to replace Macdonald.