Jazz are longshot in NBA Lottery

The Utah Jazz already know — with better than 98 percent certainty — where they are going to draft this June. But senior vice president of basketball operations Kevin O'Connor is in Seacaucus, N.J., today as the team's representative for the annual NBA Draft Lottery anyway.

"The thing I'm counting on is being 14th," said O'Connor.

The lottery will be held at 5:30 p.m. (MDT) and broadcast live on ESPN.

By virtue of finishing the 2005-06 season with the best record of the 14 non-playoff teams, there is a 98.2 percent chance the Jazz will have the No. 14 pick in the draft.

Then again, that leaves a 1.8 percent chance the Jazz could have one of the top three picks in the draft by 6 tonight.

"You never know," said O'Connor.

Still, the Jazz would be the biggest longshot winner in NBA lottery history should they pull out a ping-pong ball with a Jazz logo on it, giving the team the top overall pick.

Of the 1,000 ping-pong balls in the lottery hopper, just five are owned by the Jazz. For those math-challenged fans out there, that means the Jazz will have a 1-in-200 chance — .05 percent — of getting the No. 1 pick. By contrast, the Portland Trail Blazers will have 250 balls and the Chicago Bulls, as owners of the New York Knicks' pick, will have 199.

After the ball is selected for the No. 1 pick, two more balls will be chosen for the second and third selections. That means that the Jazz will have a .06 percent chance of getting the No. 2 pick and a .07 chance of getting the third pick — for a grand total of a 1.8 percent chance of getting one of the top three picks.

When the top three picks have been determined, the remaining 11 teams will be put in order of their records, with the worst remaining team getting the fourth pick and the best getting No. 14. Utah, by virtue of its 41-41 mark in the recently completed season, has no shot of getting picks anywhere from fourth to 13th — it's either top three or 14th.

So what if the Jazz defy the odds and get a Top 3 pick?

"Then," said O'Connor, "it becomes a different ballgame."

The Jazz left last season's lottery with the No. 6 pick but were able to trade up to third on draft day in a deal with the Blazers to ensure the opportunity of getting a top point guard. Utah selected Deron Williams ahead of the draft's other highly rated point guards Chris Paul and Raymond Felton.

The winner of this year's lottery will face a tough decision. There isn't a LeBron James or Tim Duncan or Shaquille O'Neal-type player in the group of eligible players either coming out of college or on the international scene.

"It's a good group," said Ryan Blake, the NBA's assistant director of scouting. "It's deep and deep into the second round."