Thumping of incumbents creates a political buzz

Webb: Utah's election system is nicely balanced between grass-roots political activism (the party caucus/delegate/convention phase) and broad voter participation (the primary and general election phase). The first phase of the 2006 election cycle concludes this Saturday with both major political parties holding their state conventions.

The slates of candidates will then be set for the June 27 primary election, leading up to the Nov. 7 general election.

Democrats, relegated to minor party status in Utah for many years with little hope for improvement, can barely field one reasonable candidate in most Utah races, let alone two or three. Thus, they haven't had much to get excited about during the convention process.

Republicans, meanwhile, have had some spirited contests, some upsets, and a whiff of anti-incumbent sentiment has been detected in the air of some GOP county conventions. Longtime Davis County Commissioner Dannie McConkie, a veritable institution in local government circles, was summarily ousted in convention by Bret Millburn, who is young, mostly unknown and untested.

A big question is whether anti-incumbent attitudes will pervade the GOP state convention on Saturday, where all eyes will be on the 3rd Congressional District race featuring Congressman Chris Cannon in a three-way battle with former Congressman Merrill Cook and businessman John Jacob.

The immigration issue will also be a factor in that contest. Cannon is a perennial target of the anti-immigration crowd, while Cook is trying hard to exploit that issue in his favor.

Cook can't win, and most delegates know that. He got started late, hasn't spent much money, doesn't even live in the district and comes across as an opportunist looking for any race to jump aboard. He will get his 15 percent or so of delegate votes.

Cannon started the campaign in worse shape than any member of the Utah congressional delegation, with high negative approval ratings and low positives. He has never been a star campaigner or fund-raiser. But by all accounts he has worked harder this year than in any of his other re-election fights. He has had a busy schedule meeting with delegates, and it's unlikely he will be ousted in convention.

Jacob is a solid candidate with plenty of money. He got off to something of a slow start but has been coming on strong with numerous delegate meetings and an aggressive direct-mail campaign. He hasn't emphasized or built his campaign around any particular issue, but when people get to know him they seem to like him.

My guess: Cannon and Jacob end up in a primary battle.