Bird-flu plan vital

Preparations for a bird-flu outbreak are starting to feel a bit like the intense planning that occurred prior to the Y2K changeover. Most of you may remember a lot of hype about widespread computing and business disruptions coinciding with the arrival of the new millennium, as well as fears about shortages of food, water supplies and malfunctioning electrical power and natural gas supplies. Yet 2000 arrived with nary a peep, although it provided a valuable excuse for many businesses and government agencies to upgrade their computing equipment. The rest of us probably don't remember much about it.

But there's no faulting precautions when stepping into the great unknown. There needs to be a plan for the possibility of the unthinkable.

The same is true of bird-flu preparations. A soon-to-be-released national response plan assumes a worst-case scenario that as many as 90 million people in the United States would become sick and 2 million would die in a worldwide flu pandemic. People would have to stay home from work, school and other mass gathering places to prevent the spread of the disease. Another part of the plan envisions "drive-through" medical examinations for signs of infection.

The plan will be released this week, but some details have been made public through Washington Post reports. The timing is critical because federal officials believe the first case of bird flu could arrive in the United States in coming weeks or months as birds migrate from overseas.

Advance planning is critical, but the success of the plan will depend upon local officials who will be in charge of administering limited amounts of bird-flu vaccine. Conventional thinking is that the vaccine will be administered to people believed to be most vulnerable to the winter influenza — the old, the very young and those with compromised health.

Beyond matters of public health, a bird-flu pandemic would also have economic implications. The United States poultry industry alone is said to be worth $29 billion annually. Some 14 percent of American-raised poultry is sold abroad. Not only could poultry be blocked from trade, it could become more difficult to come by if suspect farms are quarantined or if sentry tests suggest a potentially virulent flu virus is present. Then, the turkeys or chickens would be killed immediately, even before extensive tests are conducted.

What becomes of the tourist trade? Would travel be restricted to stem the spread of the disease?

In many respects, Americans are getting a bit ahead of themselves in their bird-flu concern. The virus has yet to become easily transferable among humans. But because the possibility of a pandemic exists, the federal government, as well as state and local partners are wise to establish a workable plan in the event the unthinkable happens.